Old thinking about red and blue states leaves us one election from catastrophe.
Originally appeared in U.S. News & World Report
By Pamela Shifman
Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign raised a record-setting $1 billion in the third quarter of this year – but it’s not just donations to the presidential candidate that will decide the future of our democracy after Nov. 5.
Our network of major progressive donors at the Democracy Alliance is working day and night to ensure that Harris defeats the dangerous former president, Donald Trump, and we’re not just on the ground in swing states. We are also supporting field operations in places that might surprise you: blue states like New York and California, where Congressional races could make all the difference in enabling – or derailing – Harris’ progressive agenda if she’s elected.
Headlines focus on the White House, but when progressive donors and activists ignore seemingly “safe” states and districts, we do so at our peril. The last election cycle showed us that old thinking about red and blue states is obsolete and leaves us one election away from catastrophe.
Remember the midterm elections in 2022, when control of the House was at stake? Many pundits didn’t think New York was in play. But the state had lost a House seat after reapportionment following the 2020 Census, and several districts were reconfigured. Five-term Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, chairman of the powerful Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, lost his seat by less than a point in an upset to Republican Mike Lawler in New York’s 17th District. New York Democrats lost four House seats that cycle, and the GOP picked up three.
A similar story happened in California. The Golden State may be reliably blue for president, but on election night in 2022, Republicans were winning in House districts that had voted for President Joe Biden two years earlier. That night, California Republicans gained one seat and Democrats lost two, another result of redistricting that erased a previously Democratic-leaning House seat.
When the dust settled, the nationwide “red wave” of GOP wins that pundits had predicted didn’t materialize, but thanks in part to Republican wins in deep-blue New York and California, the GOP took control of the House with 222 seats to Democrats’ 213.
What was behind the stinging losses in 2022? A botched redistricting process at the state level and Republican fear-mongering on immigration and crime certainly contributed. But a deeper problem was that Democrats were taking blue states for granted.
Democrats in New York and California didn’t have the year-round infrastructure that they do in swing states such as Wisconsin and Michigan. In New York, for example, grassroots organizations and labor unions worked hard during election cycles, but didn’t have donor support in off years for a durable infrastructure run by a core group of organizers and strategists. We realized we needed to boost capacity for grassroots organizations and create more robust voter engagement programs aimed at elections up and down the ballot – not just for president.
Filling some of the gaps will take years, but now we have momentum. The New York state Democratic Party is putting serious resources into its ground game while building its infrastructure – underscoring that we need a strong party and a strong, well-funded outside field infrastructure. Leaders such as Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, the House Democratic minority leader whose district covers parts of Brooklyn, have been clear-eyed about the work ahead. This cycle, the House Majority PAC, the Super PAC focused on electing Democrats to the House, has been investing in New York as well as California and Washington and other states.
Meanwhile, supported by our donors, a partnership that includes community organizers and activists, labor unions and a progressive political party called the Working Families Party has been experimenting with a new approach. Two new coalitions called Battleground New York and Battleground California are knocking on doors. These groups are prioritizing human connections, deploying local door-knockers to get low-propensity – but high-potential – voters engaged in elections. No amount of paid media can replace conversations at the door or over the phone.
Our strategy is to build a big tent. That means creating a space where all Democrats – from far left to centrists – can collaborate, with our eyes on the same goal: flipping the House blue. Together we can block the worst MAGA threats by electing candidates who can win now, even if that person doesn’t align 100% with all our policy goals, while building long-term support for a progressive agenda.
That partnership was put to the test after the expulsion of Republican Rep. George Santos in late 2023 over a slew of ethics violations and a pair of federal indictments. That resulted in a special election in New York’s 3rd Congressional District. Battleground New York knocked on 104,000 doors in just 30 days, more than in any other special congressional election in recent New York history. More than 40% of target voters came from Asian American communities – the same voters targeted by Republicans in New York since 2021. On Feb. 13, the battleground efforts were successful and Democrat Tom Suozzi was elected by a margin of almost eight points.
The 2022 midterm election was a wake-up call for progressives, but the silver lining was that it reminded us that if blue states aren’t entirely blue, red states aren’t entirely red either.
In many red states, progressive leaders are building ground games. In Georgia, for example, organizations including Black Voters Matter were key to the victories of U.S. Senators Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff in runoff elections in January 2021, which shifted control of the Senate to Democrats.
With a fight for control of the U.S. Senate this election, we’re seeing a late surge of progressive funding going to Texas, for example, where there’s a chance of Democrat Colin Allred winning a U.S. senate seat. It’s great to send money when it’s needed, but being reactive in the final stretch means playing catch up.
When progressives invest in political organizing only every four years, we are starving the roots of the organizations that we need to win. And if we focus just on battleground states, we will always be playing defense. We need to commit to year-round investment in organizers in all states if we want to win.
On election night, I’ll be watching Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan as closely as everyone else. But I’ll also be looking far beyond the swing states, because I want to know the score for a generation ahead.
Pamela Shifman is president of Democracy Alliance.